Yesterday, Chad Fife wrote a post about how too many choices and too much information can cause “decision paralysis.“ His post hit home for me as it mirrored many shopping trips I’ve taken with my husband (more on that next week). But I also want to explore the opposite issue- when there is a lack of information, but you still have to make a decision. Or as I like to call it: Life.
We rarely have all of the information we need to make the most informed decision possible. A critical thinker works to access as much relevant information in a timely fashion as possible, and then question, verify, and analyze that information before drawing a conclusion. 
But what happens when our expectations regarding the information that “should” be available are too high? Ask any Business or Data Analyst how often they get requests for data from executives that simply doesn’t exist. “Mike, check out the buying patterns of single-mothers who live in Brooklyn and use debit cards. Do they typically buy bagels with their orange juice or English muffins?” One thing executives hate to hear is “we don’t have that information.”
However, just because crystal clear data doesn’t exist, doesn’t mean the trend doesn’t exist. We have to ask ourselves if we’re being reasonable about our expectations.
This topic came to mind recently as I was listening to one of my lawyer friends talk about the CSI Effect in regards to the Casey Anthony case. The CSI Effect theorizes that our expectations of evidence in a trial are higher than reality allows. We have been watching TV shows like CSI, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Without a Trace, etc for so long that we think the technology being shown on those shows are available in real life. Therefore, juries are more likely to acquit an individual due to “reasonable doubt” because the evidence didn’t meet their bloated expectations.
However, an absence of irrefutable evidence is the bread and butter of a skeptic’s life. In fact, a skeptic typically believes that if a “thing” can’t be undeniably proven to be true, then it is unquestionably false.
So, which is right?
A good decision maker must balance the need for more information with the reality that, in life, there are very few absolute truths and often the information you seek is unavailable when you need it the most. Try to set reasonable expectations about what you need in order to make an informed decision.
Are you trying to make a decision in an ambiguous situation today?
Editor’s Note: Breanne Harris is the Solutions Architect for Pearson TalentLens. She works with customers to design selection and development plans that incorporate critical thinking assessments and training. She has a Master’s degree in Organizational Psychology and has experience in recruiting, training, and HR consulting. She is the chief blogger for Critical Thinkers and occasionally posts at ThinkWatson. Connect with her on LinkedIn and Twitter for more of her thoughts.
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Hi Breanne,
You are correct in that incomplete information (whether through insufficient inputs or insufficient time to analyze them) is a staple of decision-making. And, while I cannot help agreeing with your conclusion that one needs to balance the need for complete information with the reality that complete information is usually unavailable, it would be interesting to hear your take on exactly how to strike this balance and maximize the likelihood of a correct decision.
The coffee I bought this morning cost $1.50 so I bought it. I might not have if I knew the conditions of the people that harvested it.
The social media genius I sought out and hired for a key role in a fully-funded Internet Start Up perhaps wouldn’t have been hired if I knew he would be a slacker.
It seems to me that _all_ decisions are made with insufficient information.